POLY ARB ENGINEv1 // POLYMARKET
SCANNED TODAY
23913
ARB HITS TOTAL
299
BEST DIST EVER
41.00¢
DAYS TRACKED
1
Best Dist-to-Arb Today
41.00¢
ARB OPPORTUNITY DETECTED
Avg Combined Ask
1.0052
0.52¢ avg premium above $1
Markets Scanned Today
23913
299 arb signals
All-Time Arb Hit Rate
1.25%
of all scanned signals
Exec Sim (Improved)
0.1%
14765 sims run | closer-to-arb after 1s
Closest Market Now
Miami Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Taylor Fritz
dist: 41.00¢+69.5% ROI | vol: $549k
Best Arb Today — LMSR Edge
+69.5%
Y=0.430 + N=0.160 = 0.590< $1
buy both sides → guaranteed +41.0¢ per $0.59 invested
Distance to Arb — 7 Day History
cents away from guaranteed $1 return (higher = closer to arb)
best dist
avg dist
markets
Best Markets — Closest to Arb (all time)
last 7 days
Miami Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Taylor Fritz
+41.00¢
dist to arb
Y=0.430 + N=0.160
BUY BOTH → +69.5% returninvest 0.59 → collect $1
Monaco vs. Olimpia Milano
+36.00¢
dist to arb
Y=0.280 + N=0.360
BUY BOTH → +56.3% returninvest 0.64 → collect $1
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 24?
+30.00¢
dist to arb
Y=0.540 + N=0.160
BUY BOTH → +42.9% returninvest 0.70 → collect $1
Miami Open: Sebastian Korda vs Martin Landaluce
+28.00¢
dist to arb
Y=0.270 + N=0.450
BUY BOTH → +38.9% returninvest 0.72 → collect $1
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
+8.00¢
dist to arb
Y=0.180 + N=0.740
BUY BOTH → +8.7% returninvest 0.92 → collect $1
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
+8.00¢
dist to arb
Y=0.370 + N=0.550
BUY BOTH → +8.7% returninvest 0.92 → collect $1
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?
+7.20¢
dist to arb
Y=0.778 + N=0.150
BUY BOTH → +7.8% returninvest 0.93 → collect $1
Valencia vs. Olympiacos B.C.
+7.00¢
dist to arb
Y=0.470 + N=0.460
BUY BOTH → +7.5% returninvest 0.93 → collect $1
Miami Open: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Muchova
+5.00¢
dist to arb
Y=0.310 + N=0.640
BUY BOTH → +5.3% returninvest 0.95 → collect $1
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?
+4.00¢
dist to arb
Y=0.190 + N=0.770
BUY BOTH → +4.2% returninvest 0.96 → collect $1
Live Scan Feed
15s refresh
scanning…
Kelly Position Calculator
EV-based sizing from LunarResearcher's framework
MANUAL EDGE CALCULATOR
MARKET PRICE (YES) — 50¢
YOUR PROBABILITY — 60%
BANKROLL ($)
Edge (EV/share)
+10.00¢
Full Kelly
20.0% → $200
¼ Kelly (recommended)
5.0% → $50
Expected return
$10.00
f* = (p·b − q) / b | ¼ Kelly reduces variance. EV = p·(1−price) − q·price. Arb profit = (1 − YES − NO) / (YES + NO).